Heaven Mail Global Bureau
World is likely headed for global recession. This global recession is mostly going to be result of pandemic Coronavirus that since 3 years has wrecked havoc across the world. The worry is it keeps coming back halting the global growth. The Russian Ukraine war like factors adding fuel to fire. Reports and facts indicate that we are heading for global recession. This will increase unemployment across world and destroy economies.
As a matter of fact, global recession is recession that affects many countries around the world—that is, a period of global economic slowdown or declining economic output.
The world faces a recession in 2023 higher borrowing costs aimed at tackling inflation cause a number of economies to contract, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
The global economy surpassed $100 trillion for the first time in 2022 but will stall in 2023 as policy makers continue their fight against soaring prices, the British consultancy said in its annual World Economic League Table.
“It’s likely that the world economy will face recession next year as a result of the rises in interest rates in response to higher inflation,” said Kay Daniel Neufeld, director and head of Forecasting at CEBR.
The report added that, “The battle against inflation is not won yet. We expect central bankers to stick to their guns in 2023 despite the economic costs. The cost of bringing inflation down to more comfortable levels is a poorer growth outlook for a number of years to come.”
The findings are more pessimistic than the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund. That institution warned in October that more than a third of the world economy will contract and there is a 25% chance of global GDP growing by less than 2% in 2023, which it defines as a global recession.
Even so, by 2037, world gross domestic product will have doubled as developing economies catch up with the richer ones. The shifting balance of power will see the East Asia and Pacific region account for over a third of global output by 2037, while Europe’s share shrinks to less than a fifth.
The CEBR takes its base data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and uses an internal model to forecast growth, inflation and exchange rates.
China is now not set to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy until 2036 at the earliest – six years later than expected. That reflects China’s zero Covid policy and rising trade tensions with the west slow, which have slowed its expansion.
CEBR had originally expected the switch in 2028, which it pushed back to 2030 in last year’s league table. It now thinks the cross-over point will not happen until 2036 and may come even later if Beijing tries to take control of Taiwan and faces retaliatory trade sanctions.
also predicted that:
India will become the third $10 trillion economy in 2035 and the world’s third largest by 2032
The UK will remain the world’s sixth largest economy, and France seventh, over the next 15 years but Britain is no longer set to grow faster than European peers due to “an absence of growth oriented policies and the lack of a clear vision of its role outside of the European Union.”
Emerging economies with natural resources will get a “substantial boost” as fossil fuels play an important part in the switch to renewable energy.
Moreover, many countries’ current economic woes are self-inflicted, owing to policy errors that have been as harmful as they were predictable. Between 2011 and 2021, for example, Europe needlessly deepened its dependence on Russian natural gas, leaving it exceedingly vulnerable when the Kremlin launched its war against Ukraine. Likewise, China’s draconian zero-COVID policy came at a high economic cost, while the absence of a plan for how to ease pandemic restrictions meant that China’s containment strategy merely postponed COVID mortalities.
Despite global recession India is still a bright spot.
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) termed India as a bright spot on a dark horizon. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva herself made this comment at the IMF’s recent annual meeting in Washington. The IMF expects the Indian economy to grow at 6.8 per cent in 2022 and at a little slower at 6.1 per cent in 2023, thus retaining the tag of the world’s fastest growing major economy.
The Need of the hour is that people in a place like Kashmir save more spend less so as to stay prepared for any future global recession.
World too needs to stay cautious as global recession involves more or less synchronized recessions across many national economies, as trade relations and international financial systems transmit economic shocks and the impact of recession from one country to another.